It routinely conducts Arctic tactical exercises with thousands of troops, including specialized Arctic units. Russia is by far the largest Arctic state based on size, population and military forces stationed in the region. and its Arctic partners might consider resuming diplomatic relations with Russia through the Arctic Council as soon as feasibly possible after the end of the war in Ukraine. military is at somewhat of a disadvantage.Īccording to Mathieu Boulègue, a researcher at Chatham House, a London-based policy institute, “Moscow feels that it has a position of relative strength in the Arctic, which means that it is clearly seeking to obtain dividends from its perceived military superiority.” The U.S. The risk for miscalculation may be great - should a conflict spill over from the Ukraine invasion into the Arctic, the U.S. But the prospect of returning to the council’s business as usual in the Arctic still seems very far away.Īlthough a conflict in the Arctic may be unlikely, it’s hard to gauge whether it would happen, based on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unpredictable behavior and his invasion of Ukraine.

The seven Arctic states are cooperating in Arctic Council activities not involving Russia, including restarting scientific cooperation across countries. Even Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea did not result in the same diplomatic response. The move by Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United States was unprecedented in council history, and it threatens to unravel a set of governance mechanisms put in place by the Arctic Council and other international forums that have maintained peace and collaboration in the Arctic for generations. The council said it could not perpetuate an image of “business as usual.”

Seven countries that ring the North Pole recently declared that they would suspend cooperation with Russia at the Arctic Council, which Russia currently chairs, in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Arctic scoop